A Look at the States Ahead

Super Tuesday does not end it on the GOP side, although John McCain is clearly favored, he’s also more than 450 delegates off the required 1191. So what’s ahead for McCain, Huckabee, and Romney? Let’s take a look:

February 9th:

Louisiana Primary-20 Delegates

After this past Tuesday, Huckabee should be able to win here given the victory by uncommitted pro-life in Caucuses earlier this month. However, in order to have more than a symbolic victory, he needs to win 50% of the vote, otherwise this goes to the State Convention as to who the delegates will go for, which I think is the likely outcome.

Kansas Caucus: 39 Delegates:

This is a state you could argue for any candidate to win. First of all McCain has the endorsement of Senior Senator Sam Brownback as well as Kansas Political Icon Bob Dole.

On the other hand, this is a Caucus, and outside of Iowa, Mitt Romney has won those.

Finally, this is a hotbed of Evangelical Pro-Life activism unlike hardly any other state, and therefore could be Huck’s.

Whoever wins, it’s important to note, it’s Winner Take all by Congressional District and Winner Take all for the at-large delegates.

Washington: 18 Delegates

This won’t be very exciting as we won’t know who actually won delegates. Washington has a two step process. The first is similar to the Wyoming Conventions held in January where delegates are awarded without any requirement as to who they’ll be voting for at the Convention. Given the helter skelter nature of Washington, we may not know for Days who won Delegates out of this Caucus. Strong bet would be on Romney to have this one covered. But don’t count Huckabee out, Washington went for Pat Robertson in 1988.

February 12th

District of Columbia-19
Maryland-37
Virginia-63

All these states are winner take all. It’s hard to see how McCain doesn’t take them. DC and Maryland are fairly liberal (i.e. John McCain Republicans through and through) that they’ll go for him easily. Virginia is perhaps the most pro-establishment state in the South, again favor McCain.

February 19:

Washington Primary-19 Delegates

The second part of Washington’s delegate selection process is an election for the national convention. Winner of the State will get 10 delegates, 1 for each Congressional District. Romney or Huck could take 1 delegate around the Spokane area, but I see this overall going to McCain.

Wisconsin Primary-40 Delegates

If Mitt Romney wants a test case for staying in this race, Wisconsin could be it. Similar to other states he’s won in the Mid-West, it fundamentally would make sense to focus on Wisconsin comeback before trying to sink money into an Ohio or Texas bid later on. The State is winner take all for at large delegates with 24 delegates allotted by Congressional district, so John McCain also will win some.

February 23-Virgin Islands-9
February 24-Puerto Rico-23
March 1-American Samoa-9

These territorial caucuses and primaries usually go overwhelmingly to the frontrunner if there’s a vote (Bob Dole got more than 90% in Puerto Rico in 1996) or are uncommitted until the convention.

March 4th:

Ohio-88 Delegates
Texas-140 Delegates
Rhode Island-20 Delegates
Vermont-14 Delegates

Liberal Rhode Island and Vermont should easily go to John McCain with their 34 delegates. Ohio is another matter. If Mitt Romney were to win in Wisconsin, he could legitimately establish himself as the candidate of the Upper Midwest and end up taking Oahio. The Statewide winner gets 31 delegates, and 3 each are up for grabs in Ohio’s Congressional districts. Mike Huckabee could pick up a few districts in the Southern Part of the State and it shouldn’t be forgotten that the state has a powerful religious conservative movement.

Texas is another matter. It features an open primary followed by a closed party caucuses to actually choose delegates, so no one’s going to grab all 140. This has to be considered Huckabee’s must-win state at this point. The campaign has done a lot with little money. Texas is a huge state both geographically and in terms of population. A win, even a narrow one establishes him as a national political force.

March 4th is the soonest that John McCain can clinch the nomination (unless Mitt drops out and throws his delegate to McCain). While he has to favored to do this eventually, if a Stop McCain movement gathers steam and someone other than McCain begins to pick up delegates, this could go far longer than any recent nominating processing. After March 4th, Mississippi votes on March 11th and then we get to April 23rd with Pennsylvania’s primary.

I’ll post another analysis of upcoming states after March 4th if necessary.

President McCain

Republican voters are trending towards John McCain in recent primaries. What would John McCain do as President? Many of his supporters are ignorant of his record, or overlooking it. This column will project what a John McCain presidency would look like. If you still vote for him after reading this, the pain that comes on this country will be on your own head:

Social Issues: John McCain will appoint liberal judges to the federal bench. He will make the defense of his unconstitutional campaign finance law a priority. Those judges who will rule for that unconstitutional abomination are very unlikely to see the error of Roe v. Wade as that requires a strict constructionist judicial philosophy, which those who support McCain-Feingold would not have.

John McCain would fund Embryonic Stem Cell Research. The McCain Administration, by doing so, would not relieve suffering, as recent advances have been able to develop embyronic stem cells without destroying human life, but would rather lead to ennobling abortion as a way for women to take an unwanted pregnancy, get an abortion, and use the stem cells to help those suffering from various diseases. McCain would turn abortion into a noble choice.

Economic Issues: John McCain can be expected to increase the payroll tax as part of a social security fix. He will do nothing to reform our out-of-control federal tax system.

He will rightly strain the gnat of pork barrel spending, only to swallow the camel of overly excessive environmental regulation. Even now, Americans are suffering with higher gas prices, and consequently higher prices on everything, in part because of John McCain’s refusal to support drilling in ANWR.

This would deepen as McCain would implement environmental proposals similar to Kyoto with the support of a Democratic Congress. This would further increase the price of energy and fuel for all Americans, and raise prices on everything else.

Sovereignty: John McCain has no respect for America’s sovereignty. This shows most prominently in his support for illegal immigrant amnesty, but will show in other areas as well, such as his backing of the Law of the Sea Treaty and the International Criminal Court.

American sovereignty will retract under John McCain Administration in the name of expanding the powers of International organizations that have already failed us.

Havoc on the Republican Party: John McCain will take a wrecking ball to the Republican Party.

Republicans will lose seats under McCain as Republicans loss seats under Eisenhower (the president most similar to McCain), beginning with McCain’s own Senate seat, which will be filled by the Democratic Governor of that state. With McCain’s policies appealing more to liberal and moderate voters than conservatives, many McCain voters will continually elect Democrats to Congress. If McCain were to serve two terms, by the time he ended his tenure, Republicans would certainly have less than forty senate seats and less than 175 House Seats.

In addition to this, his amnesty for illegal aliens will lead to a host of new Democratic voters, as immigrants tend to be with the party of bigger government that provides more services until they move up to the middle class. If John McCain is President, the 109^th Congress may be the last time in our lifetimes we ever see a Republican Majority in Congress.

These are a few of the likely consequences if John McCain is elected President. If Republicans love liberty, they will band together to stop this man. If they do not, John McCain is someone they richly deserve.

South Carolina Round Table

Podcast Show Notes

South Carolina/Nevada aftermath roundtable with Adam Graham joined by David Oatney, John McJunkin, Fabian Story, Warner Todd Huston, and Ken Marrero.

Click here to download, click here to add this podcast to your Itunes.

Try GotoMyPC free for 30 days! For this special offer, visit www.gotomypc.com/podcast

Mitt Romney Is Our New Inevitable Frontrunner

Based on last night’s results and the comments of Bryan at Hot Air, I’m pleased to Mitt Romney, the new inevitable frontrunner of the week. Succeeding prior inevitable frontrunners Mike Huckabee and John McCain. This is despite no one having won 2 primaries in a row yet. But it was a good sized victory, therefore Mitt Romney is going to inevitably be the GOP nominee, unless someone else wins South Carolina. In that case, we’ll have a new inevitable frontrunner.

No One Can Escape…

The e-mail list of Jim Gilmore, but Cat will try. (By the way, did I mention she didn’t sign up for it in the first place.)

The Messianic Obama?

I get most disturbed about Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) when I read some of the comments of his supporters. One stood out to me in E-mails that were sent to David Brody of CBN:

“I’m supporting Senator Obama’s candidacy because of difference reasons. I don’t agree with everything he says, I don’t agree with everything my parents say. There are “some” Christian leaders that divide us by saying the Demorcats don’t care about Evangelical issues. This is true. I glad he said “some.” Senator Obama is truly chosen for a time such as this.”

So now Obama’s the chosen one? Kind of disturbing rhetoric from a not elected, not nominated candidatee. I’d also say that I don’t agree with everything my parents say either. However, my parents never advocated live birth abortion in which the abortionists are allowed to kill the child outside the womb. Or is opposing that too divisive?

A Charmed Life

Okay, so Fred Thompson is garnering praise from his ex-girlfriends and is on good terms with them all? I don’t know if that qualifies him to be President, but it does qualify him to write relationship books. Think of him as like Dr. Phil, only bald and with a Southern accent-er wait, Dr. Phil is bald and has a Southern accent-never mind. (Hat Tip: Instapundit.)

Cashing In

The Washington Examiner has a fascinating article on how politicians get rich on their “public service:”

Bill and Hill’s money machine grabbed headlines last week when congressional financial disclosure reports were filed. But taking a wider view of the congressional disclosures reveals a highly distressing trend. Being president or a member of Congress these days looks more like a ticket to get rich than an opportunity to serve the public. Or, to put it more bluntly, how can people become so wealthy while making relatively modest government salaries?

With the Clintons, worries about paying off a $10 million legal bill at the end of Bill’s two terms as chief executive have become a distant memory thanks to his lucrative speaking fees. Last year alone, Markson Sparks paid him $750,000 for three speeches, The Power Within Inc. paid him $1.22 million for five speeches and ThePublic Inc. spent $525,000 for four speeches. Few Americans have heard of those companies because the first is in Australia and the second two are in Canada, and they paid Clinton for speeches outside the country. Others like General Motors, IBM, Cisco and Citigroup are well-known domestic Fortune 500 corporations.

The 56 speeches listed for him on Hillary’s financial disclosure form paid an average of $175,000 each (highest was $450,000, lowest was $75,000). Bill Clinton is a powerful speaker, but nearly $6,000 a minute for a half-hour speech? Note, too, that Citicorp managed the Clintons’ blind trust even as the financial giant paid him $300,000 for two speeches last year.

Members of Congress get in on the act as well:

Sen. Trent Lott, the Mississippi Republican whose total assets are valued at between $1.75 million and $2.77 million, according to his latest disclosure form. Lott’s lot has changed since 2001, when Time magazine said he had not “accumulated any significant wealth” during his career.

Since then, he has become famous for championing earmarks, including the biggest one ever, the $700 million “Railroad to Nowhere” last year. Lott’s son was a lobbyist for a Kentucky firm well-positioned to benefit from the project that, though defeated last year, could reappear in a different guise. Then there is former House Speaker Denny Hastert, whose net worth when he entered Congress in 1987 reportedly was $170,000. After getting earmarks in 2005 worth more than $200 million for a highway project a couple of miles from real estate he bought the year before, Hastert and a partner realized a profit of $1.8 million by selling to a developer. The recent 16-count indictment of Louisiana Democrat Rep. William Jefferson and the continuing probe of the earmark fandangos of Rep. Allan Molohan, D-W.Va., show this is a bipartisan problem.

With more than 32,000 earmark requests pending with the House Appropriations Committee after only five months of the current Congress, it is no surprise that people are putting two and two together and getting four. It seems the ticket is to gain federal office, take advantage of the perks and the deals that can be made because of the position and the opportunities it creates, then watch as the bank account swells.

We have politicians raking it in hand over fist and the cost comes back to us in deficits and debt passed on to future generations. Of course, I shouldn’t say future generations, because it’s going to be my generation that’s stuck cleaning up this mess in the twilight of our working years when we ought to be looking towards retirement.

This is a big part of the reason, I’m working for John Cox for President. He’s not in this to make himself rich, but rather wants to serve the public. Some people think it’s crazy to back a candidate without the strength of support of the political establishment. But, having seen the damage done by the political establishment to this country, the most insane thing I can imagine is standing by the Status Quo.

Hat Tip: Outside the Beltway

From Frunt-Runner to 2nd Tier

John McCain has plummetted to 7% in South Carolina and 6% in Iowa. I can see candidates coming up from the point he’s fallen, but I don’t see him coming back. Too old, too liberal, too tired, too done.

He probably will bow out after the next debate.

96% Right

Michael Barone calls for Primary Reform:

Is there an alternative? My favorite is the Delaware Plan, which came close to being endorsed by the 2000 Republican National Convention. It has four rounds of primaries or caucuses, with the 12 smallest states voting in March, followed by the 13 next largest in April, the next 13 in May and ending with the final 12 largest states voting in June. This would leave plenty of room for retail politics, with candidates able to pick the states where they might run best. Voters in later states would be able to judge how candidates run the gauntlet.

The nominations could not be clinched until June, since the 12 largest states have 60 percent of the nation’s population. The parties could endorse this system at their national conventions. Or if there was bipartisan support, Congress could impose it as federal law

I agree, except I’d keep Iowa and New Hampshire first. Still to be 96% backed up by Michael Barone counts for something.

Why Not McCain?

David Brody asks the question:

But you know what? Out of all the top tier candidates the most reliable pro-life vote out there seems to be John McCain. Yes, he’s not there on embryonic stem cells, but besides that one, he’s a pretty consistent vote. If you think about it, none of the other top tier candidates that are in the race not can say that.

The big deal on abortion is judges. Really, John McCain wants to be a reformer, he likes campaign finance reform, and the bet is he’ll appoint the type of judges who’ll uphold it, which will not be the type of judges who uphold Campaign Finance Reform.

Exciting Endorsement?

Fred Thompson picks up the endorsement of Al D’Amato, a man who hasn’t been in elected office since last century. Oh, the number of non-news events that get coverage in Fred Thompson’s non-compaign. Hat Tip: Wizbang Politics

Really?

A Reuters story that comes as no shock to anyone who has been paying attention:

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Inundated with politics long before the 2008 presidential election, U.S. voters are in danger of suffering wearying bouts of the uniquely American affliction of “campaign fatigue” in coming months.

Experts say voters who follow the news closely are most at risk of the condition striking this year earlier than ever. It takes its toll with information overload, long hitches of unpaid work for campaign volunteers and the all-important undecided voters on the fence longer than usual.

Voter attention tends to wane in between the early debates, major primaries and conventions and, in a contest so long this time it includes two summer hiatuses before the November 2008 vote, fatigue is practically unavoidable, many of the experts said.

“It’s a reality. There’s going to be a lot of fatigue, come summer,” said Thomas Patterson, a professor specializing in government and the press at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. “People are thinking this has been going on a long time already.”

Primary Reform anyone? This is getting absurd, but traditional politicians won’t have a whole lot of interest in changing in as the less engaged people are, the more they can play with the process.

Prosecuting Thought

The Mountain Goat Report has gone form attacking Bill Sali’s decision to oppose any legislation that a large majority of Congress supports (Mountain Goat Report: 350 Members of Congress Can Never Be Wrong.) to responding on the issue, regarding hate crimes Mountain Goat Report writes:

While it it true that any crime against any person, minority or otherwise, is important, there is a difference between a guy that randomly picks a family and ultimately murders four [Sali’s account of the Groene case omits one of the victims] in the kidnapping of two kids and the murder of someone because he’s black or perceived to be gay. Both cases are heinous and share a violent motivation but it’s the character of the motivation that’s important…

Hate Crime legislation is saying to those who would practice this form of domestic “minority terrorism” that we abhor both your physical actions and the terroristic motivation behind them. Congressman Sali’s position ignores that.

In other words, it’s the thought that counts and it’s the thought that should be prosecuted, and it’s any thought in opposition to homosexuality that is suppressed. Don’t believe me? Go to Canada and speak against Homosexuality and you’ll get dragged before the Human Rights Commission. Jerry Falwell has to edit his show for it to appear on airwaves in Canada. The result of hate crimes bills is that the state invariably gets into the business of punishing people for what they say, not because they’re inciting violence against homosexuals, but because it can be taken that way. Dangerous stuff, that. Sali was right.

Buck Romney in the 24th 1/2 Century

I read this quote from Mitt Romney with some interest:

“In France, for instance, I’m told that marriage is now frequently contracted in seven-year terms where either party may move on when their term is up. How shallow and how different from the Europe of the past.”

My first reaction was, really? Islam has long practiced temporary marriage as an option and I could see this happening. Some more well-travelled bloggers have realized this is in error. Where did it come from?

According to the New Republic:

Actually, I think I know what he’s talking about. There’s an Orson Scott Card novel in which marriages actually are contracted out for seven years (don’t ask how I know). And Romney is a big fan of sci-fi. So maybe that explains it.

Doh. “Well, Orson Scott Card novels, the New York Times” just all kind of runs together. Look, there are enoughh real reports of problems with marriage without someone making up junk like that. Mitt Romney is so minor league. Egad.